June store and restaurant reopenings likely pushed up U.S. retail sales for the second month in a row, though a recent surge in coronavirus cases could damp consumer spending as some states reinstate restrictions to combat the pandemic.

Commerce Department data to be released Thursday are expected to show a strong pickup in sales—up 5.2% from the prior month, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists—after a record 18% gain in May. The Labor Department is separately set to release the latest weekly tally of new…

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