- Sanders wins the Nevada caucus, but the vast majority of the vote is yet to be reported.
- The Vermont senator has now officially won the popular vote in the first three primary contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
- Results have been released slowly by the Nevada Democratic party to avoid a similar situation from Iowa.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Nevada Democratic caucus live results
Decision Desk HQ projects that Sanders has won nine out of Nevada’s 36 pledged delegates so far with 10% of the precinct caucus results reporting.
Here are the returns from the final ballot results:
Here are the results from the first ballot, or alignment:
The third – and most important – set of results are the county convention delegate equivalents, which will be converted into national pledged delegates.
These will update live over the course of the day as we get new results.
Catch up on live coverage from the caucuses:
- Joe Biden’s support among black voters is eroding days ahead of make-or-break primaries
- Elizabeth Warren bought a full-page ad in a GOP billionaire’s newspaper so she could taunt him about the $2.3 billion he’d pay under year one of her wealth tax
- Elizabeth Warren shredded rivals in Nevada. Here’s why it was a critical time go on offense.
- Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg clashed more than ever in the Vegas debate. These numbers show why.
- Read more about the caucus process will unfold: The Nevada caucuses are the first since the disaster in Iowa. Here’s how it will work.
What’s at stake in the Nevada caucuses:
Nevada only accounts for 36, or 0.9% of the delegates allocated throughout the nomination process, but holds disproportionate importance by virtue of being the first state with a significant non-white population to express its voting preferences.
The first two states in the process, Iowa and New Hampshire, are both over 93% white. In Nevada, however, just 49% of the population is non-Hispanic white, compared to 29% that is Hispanic or Latino of any race, 10% that is African-American, and 9% that is Asian.
Of Nevada’s 36 national pledged delegates:
- 23 are allocated proportionally between the state’s four congressional districts. The first district gets five delegates, and the three others are allocated six delegates each.
- 8 at-large and 5 PLEO (party leader and elected official) delegates will be decided and allocated based on the statewide popular vote.
Foto: sourceRuobing Su/Business Insider
Like in most other states, candidates must break 15% of the vote in a given district or voting area to win any delegates at all.
Unlike a regular primary, Nevada is a caucus, meaning that people will gather in communal locations to express their preferences for president. The caucuses have two rounds of preference expression, or alignments, meaning caucusgoers have an opportunity to shift their support.
Caucusgoers whose first-choice candidate does not meet the 15% viability threshold in the first alignment can either switch their support to a candidate who is viable, try to make their chosen candidate viable on the second round, or be uncommitted, meaning the final results could be unpredictable.
The results of Saturday’s Democratic primary are likely to be particularly crucial for Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, both of whom are hoping for a strong comeback after their fourth- and fifth-place finishes in New Hampshire.
Who does the polling say is ahead?
The state of Nevada and its presidential caucuses, in particular, are notoriously difficult and expensive to accurately poll.
As Vox recently reported, a higher-than-average proportion of the electorate in Nevada works in the casino and nightlife industry, meaning that their population has higher turnover and is more fluid than in most states, giving pollsters a small base of registered or likely voters to work with.
And many of those with jobs on the Vegas Strip or in other nightlife or hospitality-related careers work night shifts or outside the bounds of a typical nine-to-five schedule, making them much harder to reach by telephone.
On top of that, Nevada only started using presidential caucuses instead of primaries in 2008, meaning that pollsters have somewhat limited data with which to build accurate models and weights for their caucus surveys, a problem compounded by the fluctuating population in Nevada.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregated tracker of Nevada polls, Sanders currently holds a comfortable lead, polling at 30% on average with the other candidates mostly far behind. On the day of the caucuses, Buttigieg is at 15.3%, Biden is at 14.4%, Warren is at 12%, Steyer at 10.2%, and Klobuchar is at 9%.
But the additional unpredictability of caucus turnout, the ranked-choice system used in early voting, and the re-alignment process in the caucuses themselves mean that the final result could be quite different from what initial polls indicate.
While Nevada was once a battleground state, it’s been swinging into solid Democratic territory for the past several election cycles. Former Democratic nominees President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton comfortably carried the state in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 general elections, and five out the state’s six congressional representatives are now Democrats.
In 2016, former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 52.6% of the vote compared to 47.3% for Sen. Bernie Sanders.