Boardrooms and newspaper columns are full of speculation about how different the world will look once Covid-19 is finally defeated. Investors are placing bets based on long-term winners and losers.

But the uncertainty around what will count as normal runs deep on every question, while history suggests judgments at the time of major events are frequently wrong. I’ve been thinking about five of the major shifts that could take place—and why they might not. I don’t have the answers—thus the uncertainty—but laying them out is…

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