Donald Trump

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Just like in Congress, the American public splits along party lines on whether President Donald Trump should be impeached and removed from office over the Ukraine scandal.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted as the House prepares to vote on two articles of impeachment against the president, shows a deadlock. Among American adults, 48% favor his impeachment and removal and 48% oppose it.

That represents a tiny shift in Trump’s favor since late October, when a 49%-46% plurality favored impeachment and removal. But support for his ouster has risen since early October, just after the news about his handling of Ukraine policy broke; then, a 49%-43% plurality opposed his impeachment and removal.

Those findings mirror the split on Capitol Hill, where the Democratic-controlled House is pushing toward impeachment while the Republican-held Senate resists. Yet responses to other questions in the poll show larger numbers of Americans disturbed by the Trump’s behavior, which represents a warning sign for his 2020 reelection prospects.

By 53%-45%, Americans approve of the congressional impeachment inquiry into Trump’s actions. That closely tracks how Americans rate his handling of the presidency: 54% disapprove, 44% approve.

Just 25% say Trump did nothing wrong on Ukraine. And though only 10% of Republicans see grounds for his impeachment, 45% agree he has engaged in wrongdoing.

Of greater concern for the president’s reelection campaign, nearly half of Americans, 48%, say they are certain to vote against Trump in the 2020 election. One third, 34% say they’ll definitely vote for him. The remaining 18% says it depends on the identity of the Democratic nominee.

The NBC/WSJ poll of 900 adults was conducted by telephone Dec. 14-17. It carries a margin for error of 3.27 percentage points.

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